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《Applied Economics》米运生等:Evaluating the effect of China’s targeted poverty alleviation policy on credit default: a regression discontinuity approach

时间: 2022-05-31来源: 学科办

    : Yunsheng Mi(米运生); Xiaozhi Chen*; Qinying He(何勤英)

    : Applied Economics

出版时间:  2022Volume 54Issue 31

DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2021.2016585


Although the literature has found that targeted poverty alleviation (TPA) policy has many positive effects, whether it has a negative impact on farmerscredit has been under-analyzed. A regression discontinuity approach has been employed to estimate the TPA policys causal effects on credit default because the registered poor farmer was primarily determined by whether a farmers pre-policy income fell below a given poverty line. Using data from China Household Finance Survey in 2015 and 2017, we have found that Chinas registered poor farmers have a higher probability of credit default. This is because registered poor farmers protected by TPA policy pursue higher risk economic activities, leading to a higher credit default. Further analysis has shown that credit default broadly occurs in married registered poor farmers. In contrast, it rarely occurs among those with high social capital. Our empirical results have suggested the Chinese government should improve the identification rules of registered poor farmers, such as subjective psychology, and strengthen the monitoring system of their participation in economic activities.


Credit default; Registered poor farmers; Fuzzy regression discontinuity; Welfare opportunism; China


This work was supported by the Keystone Project of the National Social Science Fund of China under [Grant No. 19ZDA115].